Inflation Rate And Gdp Growth Of Pakistan - Free Essay Example

CHAPTER 1: The topic of this research is relationship between inflation rate and GDP growth of Pakistan. Nowadays in Pakistan inflation rate is high, when inflation crosses logical limits, it has negative effects on GDP growth. It drops the value of money, resulting in uncertainty of the value of profit loss of borrowers, lenders, buyers and sellers. The rising the uncertainty in saving and investment. In Feb 2009 CPI Inflation rate of Pakistan was 22.97% and GDP was 5.8%. GDP and inflation rate negative correlation present even when other factors are included to the study and the investment rate, population of growth, and the constant advances in technology and still when the factor in the effects of supply shocks features of a part of the observed period 1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT: In this research determine how much rate of inflation affect the GDP growth of Pakistan. In this research also determine inflation rate significantly affect the GDP growth of Pakistan. GDP shows the economic performance of a country so it is of most importance for concerned departments and economists of that country. On the other hand rising inflation can impact negatively on GDP and the objectives that a country achieves can be demolished by rising inflation. 1.3 SIGNIFICANCE OF RESEARCH: If GDP growing fast and rate of inflation is falling down, it is good for the economy. More money comes in Pakistan and financer invests more and more capital. GDP indicates all sectors such as agriculture, telecommunication, services, manufacturing and Per Capita Income. These all indicators represent the countryà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s economy. If these sectors were growing fast, countryà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s economy also grows faster. Foreign investors observe the market condition of Pakistan and foreign investors must see the GDP Inflation Rate of Pakistan. If the GDP growing faster and inflation going down, foreign investors invest more money into Pakistan. If GDP is growing faster, the investor earns more money and achieves good profit and aspires to keep doing business for long term and expects less risk for the loss. Investors also expect for greater dividend in real terms, if rate of inflation is dropping down. This research is also significant for foreign investor and domestic investor of stock market. If inflation is increasing, investors invest less in market because investors do not expect good profit and dividend for the shares and also expect huge risk in market for long term. If any countryà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s inflation rate is increasing, it is very difficult for financial institution to maintain the trust of investors because there is a chance of loss for the investors. This research is also significant for exporters. Exporters must see the inflation and GDP of Pakistan. If inflation is increasing, exporters export fewer goods because goods are expensive for exporters due to high inflation. Exporters export more goods, when inflation is low because goods are affordable for exporters and easy to export goods. This research is also significant for fresh graduate students. If inflation is high, there is less chance of jobs because the rate of unemployment is also high due to inflation rate. Fresh graduate also do not start business because it is carries more risk and there is chance waste of capital. 1.4 HYPOTHESES: H1: There is a negatively relationship between the Inflation rate and economic growth of Pakistan. H2: Inflation rate significantly effect on economic growth rate of Pakistan. 1.5 SUMMARY OF RESEARCH: The overall summary of this research defined in the following parts: First chapter is Introduction. In this part describe overview of all research, research problem, hypotheses of this research and definitions used in this research. Literature Review is second chapter. Describe summary of all articles, which related to this research. Third Chapter is Research Method. In this part describe data collection method, how sample size of this research and also describe technique of this research. Fourth Chapter is Results. In this part includes interpretations and findings in relevance to the hypotheses test. In this part also describe hypotheses assessment summary in table form. Fifth and last Chapter is Conclusion. In this part includes discussion based on this research finding in setting with the past research findings. In this part also describe some recommendations and implications of this research and also describe future research possibilities. Ending this part with conclusion. 1.6 DEFINITIONS: GDP and Inflation are the key macroeconomic indicators of the economic performance of any country. The relationship and cause affects are very important for any economic performance of the country. GDP Economic Growth: GDP indicates only currently produced goods and services. It is a flow measure of output per time period. For Example, per quarter or per year and indicates only goods and services produced during this interval. Such market transactions as exchange of previously produced houses, cars or factories do not enter into GDP. However, two types of goods used in the production process are counted in GDP. The first is Capital Goods and other type of goods is Intermediate Goods (Froyen, 2005). Components of GDP: GDP is broken down into the components. The first component is Consumption component of GDP. Consumption consists of the household sectors. Consumption can be further broken down into consumer durable goods (e.g., automobiles, television), nondurable consumption goods (e.g., foods, beverage, and clothing) and consumer services (e.g., medical services, haircuts) (Froyen, 2005). The second component of GDP is Investment. Investment is part of GNP (Gross National Product) purchased by the business sector in addition residential construction. Investment divided into three sub components. First is business fixed investment, second is residential construction investment and final id inventory investment (Froyen, 2005). The third component of GDP is government purchases. It is goods and services that are the parts of recent output that goes to the government sector such as federal government, state and local government (Froyen, 2005). The final component of GDP is Net exports. Net Exports equal total (gross) export minus imports. Gross exports are currently produced services goods and sold to foreign buyers, should be counted in GDP. Imports are purchases by domestic buyers of goods and services produced abroad and should not be counted in GDP. Imported goods and services are, however, included in the consumption, investment and government spending totals in GDP. Therefore, need to subtract the value of imports to arrive at the total of domestically produced goods and services (Froyen, 2005). Inflation: Inflation is when prices continue to keep rising, typically as a result of overheated economic growth or extra capital in the market search for too few opportunities. Wages usually creep upwards, so that companies can retain good workers (Amadeo, 2008). How Protection Inflation: If person are locking inflation protect alone, one best way to protect. Person purchase treasury bills and bonds; there pay fixed rates of interest. However, twice a year the governments readjust the principle in response to changes in the CPI, published monthly by the Statistics Bureau. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s mean, as inflation increases, the value of bonds increases. This is best way for protect inflation, when inflation increases (Amadeo, 2008). Aggregate Demand Theory: Aggregate Demand Theory shows that the negatively relationship between Inflation rate (price Level) and output/income (National Product). Aggregate Demand theory was developed by the English economist John Maynard Keyness (1883-1946). Term of à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"Aggregateà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ was also used as à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"aggregate spendingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ and à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"aggregate expenditureà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ (Case and Fair, 1992). How Aggregate Demand (AD) Curve deriving: The aggregate demand (AD) curve shows that the negative/inversely relationship between the aggregate output/income and the Inflation/price level and the aggregate demand (AD) curve is showing downward sloping (Case and Fair, 1992). Figure 1.1 INFL2 INFL1 Inflation Rate AD y2 y1Real Output/Income (National Product) (Source: Case and Fair, 1992) Reason for downward-slopping Aggregate Demand Curve: The increase price level/inflation causes the demand for money to increase, which cause the interest rate to increase and then the higher interest rate causes aggregation out to down (Case and Fair, 1992). The decrease in consumption brought about by a rises in the interest rate contributes to the generally fall in output. (Case and Fair, 1992). CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW Metin (1998) analyzed the empirical relationship between inflation and growth for the Turkish economy by a multivariate co-integration analysis. Metin (1998) developed model shows that the scaled income growth significantly affects inflation in Turkey. The qualified model of inflation was constant and it estimated a model previously. In this paper developed model because if inflation change one percent so it significantly affect to Growth Rate. An extensive literature had examined the relationship between the budget deficit/Income growth and inflation. At a theoretical level, Sargent and Wallace (1981) showed that under certain conditions, if the times paths of government spending and taxes were exogenous, bond-financed deficits were non-sustainable, and the central bank should eventually monetize the deficit. Money supply and inflation was rising in the long run. These findings had subsequently been generalized for the open economy case and for alternative forms of financing. Increase money supply and inflation in the long run due to the government spending and economical condition were not sustainable (Scarth, 1987; Langdana, 1990). Metin (1995) analyzed inflation for Turkey using a general framework of sector relationships and found that fiscal expansion was a determining factor for inflation. The excess demand for money affected inflation positively, but only in the short run. On the other hand, imported inflation, the excess demand for goods, and the excess demand for assets in the capital markets had little or no effect on inflation. A key policy implication of was that Turkish inflation could be reduced rapidly by eliminating the budget deficit. The demand for money, assets and goods impact on inflation (Metin, 1995). The losses were automatically financed by the credits extended by the Central Bank to the SEEs, resulting in high money growth. For 1950 period in Turkish inflation rising and balance of Payment had difficulties. Most the private firm purchase commodities at official price and reached experienced losses (Aktan, 1964; Okyar, 1965; Fry, 1972; Krueger, 1974, Onis and Riedel, 1993). Metin (1958) implemented a fairly typical International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported stabilization program, which improved the foreign-exchange situation and drastically reduced inflation. The most important component of the program was an increase in the prices of SEE goods, a component that was featured prominently in the 1970 and 1980 reforms as well. Raising those prices in 1958 resulted in an immediate and once-and-for-all increase in the price level, after which the reduced rate of expansion of Central Bank credits reduced inflation. Metin (1958) analyzed inflation dropped from 25% in 1958 to less than 5% in 1959, real gross domestic product (which had been declining) started growing immediately due to the greater availability of imports. Metin (1998) analyzed that Turkey was among the more rapidly growing developing countries during most of the 1960s, with an annual inflation rate of 5%-10%. The nominal exchange rate was kept constant after the 1958 devaluation. Investment spending increased and was financed mainly by foreign aid. In the late 1960s, foreign id did not increase, but the rate of investment spending was maintained. In addition, some difficulties appeared in obtaining imports, creating visible restraints on economic activity and growth. Turkeyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Economic volatility in deferent sectors such as in the late 1960s, foreign aid did not increase, but the rate of investment spending was maintained. In addition, some difficulties appeared in obtaining imports, creating visible restraints on economic activity and growth Barro (1995) studied that If a number of countries characteristics were held constant, in that case regression results shows that an raise in average inflation of ten proportion points per year reduces the growth rate of real per capita income GDP by 0.2 to 0.3 proportion points per year and lowers the proportion of investment to GDP by 0.4 to 0.6 proportion points. Over here come to know that some characteristics were stay constant but some of effected due to increase of inflation rate result reduce the growth rate of real per capita. Barro (1995) analyzed the result that inflation control on growth looks little; the long term inflation effects on standards of living were considerable. such as, a shift in monetary policy that increase the long-term average of inflation rate increase by ten percentage points per year was projected to down the level of real GDP after 30 years by 4% to 7%, more than enough to justify a strong interest in price constancy. The inflation rateà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s influence intensively effected lives standard which identifies by the Monitory Policy, average inflation rate and GDP. To evaluate the effects of inflation on economic growth, Barro (1995) Regression Equation method used to which many other determinants of growth were held constant. The framework was one that in this paper had developed and applied previously. Barro (1995) identified that tool through in this paper assessed influence of inflation on the development of economy and to evaluate the effects of inflation on economic growth. Fama (1981) explained these anomalous stock return-inflation relations. The data were consistent with the hypothesis that the negative relations between stock returns and inflation positive relations between actual variables and stock returns, which were more fundamental determinants of equity values. The inflation had negative influence on stock return and also real variable Metin (1995) examined the relationship between the public- sector deficit and inflation. System co-integration analysis suggests three stationary relationships. Although weak relation does not hold for variables concerned (except Ay), one was still able to develop a conditional model for inflation. In that model, an increase in the scaled budget deficit immediately increases inflation. Real income growth had a negative immediate effect and positive second-lag effect on inflation. The shortfall affected inflation at a second lag. These dynamics were consistent with institutional and general knowledge of the economy. The conditional model of inflation was constant over the sample period, even though several significant structural breaks occurred during the period. Breaks included three devaluations, structural stabilization, and economic liberalization programs. The major finding from the new equation was that budget deficits (as well as real income growth) significantly affect inflati on in Turkey. Braun and Tella (2000) studied that there was a positive partial correlation between inflation and corruption for several countries for which data was available. Furthermore, argue that causality was from inflation variability to corruption. There was a positive relationship between corruption and inflation. Dornbusch and Frenkel (1973) had developed alternative approaches to be analysis of growth and inflation. found that the effect of inflation on per capita real balance, consumption and the capital-labor ratio remain ambiguous if the yield on capital was a function of per capita real balance or if consumption was an increasing function of the rate of inflation. That ambiguity was in general not entirely removed by consideration of maximization and a specification of the nature of the service of real balance. The alternative effects inflation on per capital real balance, consumption and the capital labor ratio. Fama (1981) tested out the hypothesis that the negative relations between real stock returns and inflation observed during the post-1953 period were the consequence of proxy effects. Stock returns were determined by forecasts of more relevant real variables, and negative stock return-inflation relations were induced by negative relations between inflation and real activity. This relation inflation, real activity and stock returns define through the money demand and the quantity theory of money. Barro (1995) evaluated the effect on investment shows up clearly only for inflation rates above 10%à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å"20% per year. For lower inflation rates, the estimated effect of inflation on the investment ratio tends not pointedly different from zero. The investment effects positively when inflation above 10% to 20% per year but lower inflation effect on investment negatively and zero inflation not significantly effect on investment. Barro (1995) analyzed that the Inflation effects on growth and investment were significantly negative and long term Inflation to reduce the value of growth and investment. The analysis was that the effects of inflation on growth were significantly negative relation and also the effects of inflation on investment were significantly negative relation. Barro (1995) the values of inflation for three periods (i.e. 1965-75, 1975-85 and 1985-90) were not differing significantly from one to another. If different coefficient of inflation test for each period, then resulting values was not significantly from one to another period. If the inflation rise 10% year, growth rate of real per Capita income of GDP by 0.2% to 0.3% point per year. Khan and Senhadji (2001) located that under floating exchange rates, growing domestic inflation can move up long-run output if credit was rationed (inflation was low). However, there exist inflation thresholds as were observed empirically inflation and output were positively (negatively) correlated below (above) the threshold. With fixed exchange rates, the scope for credit to be rationed depends in a relatively complicated way on the rate of foreign and domestic inflation, and increasing foreign inflation always reduces long-run output. Barro (1995) calculated the standard deviation and analyzed the result was that if the standard deviation of inflation was included in the regressions, then the estimated coefficient on average inflation changes little, and the estimated effect of the standard deviation of inflation was still around zero. Standard deviation of inflation included in the regression, result of estimated coefficient on average inflation was little and standard deviation was around zero. Results were directly related to the literature on the costs of inflation. Despite a long tradition of research on the subject, empirical estimates were scant. Following Bailey (1956) estimating the area under the money demand curve, Fischer and Lucas (1981) found that for the US, an inflation rate of 10-percent per annum would cost 0.3- 0.9 percent of national income each year. More recently, Fischer (1993) estimated in a cross-section of countries that an increase in the inflation rate of 100 percentage points would lead to a reduction in the annual growth rate of 3.9 percentage points. Barro (1997) found that the negative relation between inflation and growth was stronger for low levels of inflation, and that inflation variance was also negatively correlated with growth. The estimated in a cross section of countries that an increase in the average inflation rate of 10 percentage points per year leads to a reduction in the growth rate of GDP of 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points per year. Braun and Tella (2000) presented the cross section estimates of the correlation between inflation variability and corruption. Average the data for 1982-1994 to obtain a maximum sample. Document a positive and significant correlation between measure of noise in the price system (Inflation Variance) and corruption. The Positive and significant correlation between the inflation and corruption Barro (1995) analyzed that it was also possible that the inflation produce a positive and significant relationship between inflation and growth. This thing happen, when demand of goods increase. Braun and Tella (2000) analyzed the result was that the increase in the cost of audit leads to an increase in corruption and in the extant fixed cost of investing. This in turn leads to a decline in aggregate investment and growth. Using the evidence that relative price oscillations increase with inflation variability, assume that the cost of audit was an increasing function of inflation variability. If corruption was increasing, Growth and Investment was decrease because negatively impact on growth and investment. Inflation was increasing due to corruption was rising. Barro (1995) evaluated that in recent years, many central banks, including the Bank of England, more emphasis on price stability. One indicator concern, the Bank of England began in February 1993 to issue the Inflation Report. Central bank gave more importance on price stability and monetary policy defines in term of interest rate or growth with stable and low inflation. In this paper contributes to closing this perception gap. Find a theoretical and empirical link between inflation variability and corruption. Since corruption had been found to had a negative/inversely impact on growth and investment. There was an indirect, corruption affected cost of inflation. Estimate that a one standard deviation raise in inflation variability from the median can lead to a reduction in the annual growth rate of one third of a percentage point and a reduction in the investment rate of 1-percent. Corruption was negative impact on growth and investment. Corruption affected cost of inflation (Mauro, 1995; Knack and Keefer, 1995; Kaufmann and Wei, 1999). Fama (1981) found the result was that the negative relations between inflation and real activity predicted by the money demand-quantity theory model and observed consistently in the regressions were negative partial correlations. The relations between inflation and real activity predicted by the money demand quantity theory model Braun and Tella (2000) calculated that increase in inflation variability of one standard deviation from the median leads to an increase in corruption of 0.12 of a standard deviation. Repeating the above calculations obtain that an increase in inflation variance of one standard deviation leads to a decline in investment of 1.02 percent of GDP, and a decline in growth of 0.33 percentage points. Braun and Tella (2000) estimated for the impact of an increase in inflation variability of one standard deviation range from 1.02 percent to 2.72 percent of GDP for investment, and from 0.33 to 0.88 percentage points for growth. Increase in inflation of one standard deviation leads to decline in investment of 1.02 % of GDP and decline in growth 0.33 % points. Braun and Tella (2000) estimated the effects were also economically significant. Researcher basic cross section approximate suggests that a one standard deviation increase in the variance of inflation associated with an increase in corruption of up to 0.47 points, or 32-percent of the standard deviation of corruption. Braun and Tella (2000) estimated can be used to calculate an indirect cost of variable inflation that operates through corruption. Researcher find that an increase in inflation variability of one standard deviation from the median can lead to a decline in investment of 2.7-percent of GDP, and to a decline in the annual growth rate of 0.9 percentage points. Increase in inflation of one standard deviation leads to decline in investment of 2.7 % of GDP and decline in growth 0.9 % points. Braun and Tella (2000) calculated that increase in inflation variability of one standard deviation from the median leads to an increase in corruption of 0.12 of a standard deviation. Braun and Tella (2000) analyzed the result was that an increase in inflation variance of one standard deviation leads to a decline in investment of 1.02 percent of GDP, and a decline in growth of 0.33 percentage points. Braun and Tella (2000) estimated for the impact of an increase in inflation variability of one standard deviation range from 1.02 percent to 2.72 percent of GDP for investment, and from 0.33 to 0.88 percentage points for growth. Increase in inflation of one standard deviation leads to decline in investment of 1.02 % of GDP and decline in growth 0.33 % points. Fama (1981) analyzed two types of models for expected inflation were estimated and compared. One approach was interest rates into expected inflation rates and expected real returns. Since the interest rates were observed at the beginning of the time intervals of interest, this approach estimates the ex ante expected inflation rates which eventually allow to document the negative relations between ex ante expected stock returns and expected inflation rates. The negative relation between the expected stock returns and expected inflation rates Fama (1981) analyzed second approach, based on money demand and quantity theory of money, estimates conditional expected inflation rates as functions of money and real activity growth rates. Since measures of current money and current and future real activity growth rates were major explanatory variables, these conditional expected inflation rates were not ex ante measures. Fama (1981) also analyzed the money demand-quantity theory models of inflation provide the empirical economic story which explains why the ex ante expected inflation rates extracted from interest rates were also strongly related to current and future real activity. Inflation rate were strongly related to interest rate because of money demand theory and quantity theory of money. Fisher (1911) observed the relations between inflation and the measures of current and future real activity which this model presumes were important in the determination of stock market returns. The theoretical basis for the study of inflation-real activity relations was a rational expectations combination of money demand theory. The theory and empirical results were abstracted from my 1980 paper. In this paper presented just enough of the theory and evidence to document the inflation-real activity relations of interest. Verme (2004) was study the Walrasian equilibrium; changes in either the domestic inflation rate or in the world inflation rate had qualitatively similar effects. When credit was rationed, changes in the domestic inflation rate and the world inflation rate always affect the domestic capital stock differently. This occurs because credit rationing breaks the link between the marginal product of capital and the rate of interest on loans: what matters was how the domestic and foreign rates of inflation affect the self-selection constraint and researcher affect this differently. Whenever there were restrictions on capital availability, the domestic and foreign inflation rates react differently on the economy. Verme (2004) analyzed theory of Walrasian equilibrium was that changes in the domestic rate of inflation can had very different effects under credit rationing. Again, this happens because what matters was how the domestic inflation rate affects the self-selection constraint. Higher domestic inflation can actually relax this constraint by increasing the rate of interest on loans, and hence attenuating the incentives of agents to misrepresent the type. The domestic inflation can also cause dearth of capital if the interest rate rises for the reason of inflation. Verme (2004) presented a model of a small open economy where financial intermediaries make a real allocate function then consider the relative merits of different exchange regimes, focusing my attention on policies that had been implemented in Latin America and, particularly, in Argentina and Peru. This document puts forward an example of an open economy where financial intermediaries may cause situations where credit may not always be restricted. Verme (2004) observed that the inflation thresholds as were observed empirically: increasing inflation beyond the threshold level reduces domestic growth output. However in economies with fixed exchange rates, increases in the foreign (and domestic) rate of inflation always had adverse consequences for real activity. In case of variable exchange rates, inflation can encourage production if credit was limited, however if the inflation exceeds beyond a certain limit then it reduce the output. Mauro (1995) estimates may be used to derive an indirect, corruption-induced, cost of inflation variability. This cost can be calculated by multiplying estimated of the impact of inflation variability on corruption by exogenous estimates of the impact of corruption on investment and growth. Given that Mauro (1995) presented such estimates, this calculation was relatively straightforward. The cost of inflation can also increase if corruption impacts investment and growth. Fama (1981) explanation of the absence of positive simple relations between money supply and real activity growth rates during the post- 1953 period was an interesting topic for future research. This was especially so since the monetary measure used, the growth rate of the base, was the one most under the control of the monetary authorities. Studying the relationship between money supply and growth rate reveals that the said rate was under most control of the controlling authorities. Braun and Tella (2000) estimated that an increase in corruption of one standard deviation leads to a decline in the average investment rate of 8.5 percent of GDP. In this paper also estimates that GDP growth would decline by 2.76 percentage points per year. It was estimated that a slight increase in the corruption can greatly decline the investment. Fama (1981) tested that the effect hypothesis implies that actions of real activity should dominate dealings of inflation when both were used as explanatory variables in real stock return regressions. In monthly, quarterly, and annual data, growth rates of money and real activity eliminate the negative relations between real stock returns and expected inflation rates. In the annual stock return regressions unexpected inflation also loses its explanatory power when located in competition with future real activity. Sometimes inflation loses its quality of increasing growth rates when there was real economic growth in the future. Fama (1981) analyzed the hypothesis for both common stocks and bonds were that expected real returns were determined in the real sector. Spurious negative relations between inflation and expected real returns were then induced by a somewhat unexpected characteristic of the money supply process during the post- 1953 period, in particular, the fact that most of the variation in real money demanded in response to variation in real activity had been accommodated through offsetting variation in inflation rather than through nominal money growth. After the analysis of securities, it was accomplished that there exists a negative/inversely relationship between inflation and expected real returns. The severe drought in India during the current cropping season may put more pressures on international prices of a number of commodities i.e. international sugar prices had already risen substantially, which had also impacted domestic prices, which sufficient domestic availability, Increasing the international commodity prices as more pressure on inflation (State Bank Annual Repot, 2009). Fama (1981) described the theory of finance that the process generating capital investments with expected rates of return in excess of costs of capital, equivalently, investment projects whose market values exceed costs of acquisition, central in the determination of stock returns. Fama (1981) estimated of a full-blown investment model would be a formidable project. The more limited goal here was to study the relations proposed by a bare-bones model of investments in order to identify real variables which were potentially important in the determination of stock returns. These real variables can then be put against measures of expected and unexpected inflation in stock return regressions. Government had been declining energy related subsidies since 2008 causing production costs to raises. In 2009, the energy cost raise further and at a much upper pace affecting the real sector activities. The cut in development expenditures during 2009 contributed to the slowdown of domestic construction activities. Decline consumption because of removal subsidies and expenditure and also decline energy subsidies. Cut in Expenditure was effect on slowdown domestic construction activities (State Bank Annual Reports, 2009). Braun and Tella (2000) presented the cross section estimates of the correlation between inflation variability and corruption. Average the data for 1982-1994 to obtain a maximum sample. Document a positive and significant correlation between measure of noise in the price system (Inflation Variance) and corruption. The Positive and significant correlation between the inflation and corruption The liquidity problem by two implications first was oil refineries could not get enough liquidity to finance oil imports and were required to operate below capacity and second was liquidity shortage at the end of power plants did not allow optimal generation of electricity. Lower electricity generation amid an already broad demand-supply gap intensified energy slippages causing productivity reduce in a number of industries (State Bank Annual report, 2009). Oil refineries could not get enough finance oil and it operates below capacity and another was shortage of power plant electricity generator of electricity. Lower electricity power affect on productivity down in a number of industries (State Bank Annual report, 2009). Verme (2004) analyzed that the Peru and Argentina were small open economies that experienced episodes of severe inflation in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Both stabilization programs were successful in declining inflation rates and had some common aspects with respect to fiscal policies. Argentina implemented a currency board while in Peru the exchange rate was left to float freely, under the supervision of the Central Bank. Khan and Senhadji (2001) located that under floating exchange rates, growing domestic inflation can move up long-run output if credit was rationed (inflation was low). However, there exist inflation thresholds as were observed empirically inflation and output were positively (negatively) correlated below (above) the threshold. With fixed exchange rates, the scope for credit to be rationed depends in a relatively complicated way on the rate of foreign and domestic inflation, and increasing foreign inflation always reduces long-run output. Verme (2004) also found that endogenously arising volatility may be experiential independently of the exchange rate system. Private information with lofty rates of domestic inflation and raises the scope for indeterminacy and economic fluctuations. Raise the inflation cause of increase in economic fluctuation. Bruno and Easterly (1998) one possible theory consistent with results was that supply surprises were the major factor in rise inflation crises and those surprises explain the negative co-actions of inflation and growth. At high levels of inflation, there usually exists an indirect relationship between inflation and growth. Sometimes, supply reductions can also cause this relationship to arise. Alesina and Drazenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s (1991) classic model of stuck equilibrium made clear that the timing of inflation equilibrium was endogenous. Inflation equilibrium may arise at the instant when the largest growth increases can be realized, which may effect in a short-run negative association between high inflation and growth. When the inflation stuck due to the largest growth increases which may result in a short run negative association between high inflation and growth. Bruno and Easterly (1998) studied that high inflation was unstable for the economy condition. High inflation was bad for economy and unstable situation. Higher inflation stuck as certain period of time. Ball (1993) calculated large sacrifice ratios for predictable growth in inflation stabilizations in OECD 15 countries. The positive relationship between output growth and inflation in short run for developing countries. Bruno and Easterly (1998) analyzed that the power of growth and inflation relationships in the long-run. There was no confirmation of a long-run relationship for developing countries recover pre-crisis trend after resolving inflation crises (Bruno and Easterly, 1998). At high levels of inflation, there usually exists an indirect relationship between inflation and growth. Sometimes, supply reductions can also cause this relationship to arise. CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODS 3.1 M ETHOD OF DATA COLLECTION In this research used secondary source for data collection. The data based on the Pakistanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s historical data. Data on GDP (Growth Rate) and Inflation Rate (CPI) has been taken from the Handbook of Statistics on State Bank of Pakistan, Pakistan Economy2005 (SBP) and Federal Bureau of Statistics. 3.2 SAMPLE SIZE: In this research data has been collected annually from 1987-88 to 2008-09. Sample size of this research is 22. 3.3 VARIABLES: In this research selected two variables for the regression model used, which include: Dependent Variable = GDP (Growth Rate) Independent Variable = Inflation Rate Table 3.1 Year GDP (Growth Rate) Inflation Rate 1987 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 88 7.62% 8.84% 1988 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 89 4.96% 7.88% 1989 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 90 4.45% 9.05% 1990 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 91 5.45% 12.63% 1991 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 92 7.83% 4.85% 1992 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 93 1.26% 9.83% 1993 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 94 3.74% 11.27% 1994 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 95 4.96% 13.02% 1995 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 96 4.85% 10.79% 1996 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 97 1.01% 11.80% 1997 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 98 2.50% 7.81% 1998 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 99 3.10% 5.74% 1999 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 00 3.90% 3.58% 2000 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 01 2.50% 4.41% 2001 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 02 3.60% 2.50% 2002 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 03 5.10% 3.10% 2003 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 04 6.40% 4.57% 2004 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 05 8.40% 9.28% 2005 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 06 6.60% 7.92% 2006 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 07 6.80% 7.77% 2007 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 08 4.10% 12.00% 2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 09 2.00% 20.78% (Source: www.sbp.org.pk/reports/annual) 3.4 STATISTICAL TECHNIQUE: In this research used the Linear Regression statistical technique. Linear regression is relationship between a scalar variable (i.e. y) and one or more variables denoted (i.e. x). Linear regression shows that the unknown parameters are projected from the data using linear functions. In this research determine the relationship between the inflation rate and GDP growth of Pakistan. Equation: In this research this is the following equation used: à ¯? ²GDP à ¯Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ½Ãƒ ¯Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  Ãƒ ¯Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  Ãƒ ¯Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  Ãƒ ¯? ¡Ãƒ ¯Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  Ãƒ ¯Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ «Ãƒ ¯Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  Ãƒ ¯? ¢Ãƒ ¯Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  (Inflation) + U CHAPTER NO 4: RESULTS 4.1 FINDINGS AND INTERPRETATION OF THE RESULT: Table 4.1 Descriptive Statistics    Mean Std. Deviation N GDP 4.6223 2.07389 22 Inflation 8.6082 4.20592 22 Table 4.2 Correlations       GDP inflation Pearson Correlation GDP 1.000 -.237 Inflation -.237 1.000 Sig. (1-tailed) GDP . .144 Inflation .144 . N GDP 22 22 Inflation 22 22 Table 4.3 Variables Entered/Removedb Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method 1 inflationa . Enter Table 4.4 Model Summary Model R R Square Adj. R Square Stand. Error of the Estimate Ch. Statistics F Ch. R Square Ch. df1 df2 Sig. F Change 1 .237a 0.0563 0.00916 2.06436 1.1942308 0.056347 1 20 0.287467 a. Predictors: (Constant), Inflation b. Dependent Variable: GDP The model summary table of the data analysis shows that the no relationship between the dependent variable and the model. R, the correlation coefficient, is the linear correlation between the observed and expected values of the dependent variable. Its value i.e. 0.237, which indicates has 23.7% correlation between the observed and predicted values. . R2, the coefficient of determination, shows that almost 5.63% of the deviation in the GDP is explained by the model. Level of significance is 0.287 shows that there is no negatively relationship between the inflation rate and GDP growth of Pakistan because significant value is greater than 0.05. Table 4.5 ANOVA Model Sum of Sq. Df Mean Sq. F Sig. 1 Regression 5.089339 1 5.089339 1.194 0.287 Residual 85.23208 20 4.261604 Total 90.32142 21 a. Predictors: (Constant), Inflation b. Dependent Variable: GDPThe Regression row of the ANOVA table reflects information regarding the variation taken into account by the model. The regression sum of squares suggests that almost 5.63% of the change in dependent variable is described by this research model. The insignificance value of the t statistic is greater than 0.05 i.e. 0.287, which shows that the no relationship between the variables. Table 4.6 Coefficients Model Un-standardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta 1 (Constant) Inflation 5.610 -0.118 1.030 0.108 -0.23659 5.444 -1.0889 0.0000 0.289 a Dependent Variable: GDP The constant coefficient in the above mentioned model predicts that with the current value of the predictors i.e. if there is no change in the independent variables than there be a change of 5.62983 units in the GDP of Pakistan. Furthermore, this model suggests that if there is an increase of 1 unit in Inflation of Pakistan, the GDP of Pakistan decrease by 0.11705. These result also shows that Inflation rate is insignificantly affect on GDP growth of Pakistan because of significant value is greater than 0.05 i.e. 0.287. Table 4.7 Coefficient Correlations Model Inflation 1 Correlations Inflation 1.000 Co-variance Inflation .011 Table 4.8 Collinearity Diagnostics Model Dimension Eigen value Cond. Index Variance Proportions (Constant) inflation 1 1 1.902 1.000 .05 .05 2 .098 4.416 .95 .95 Graph: Figure 4.1: Figure 4.2: 4.2 HYPOTHESES ASSESSMENT SUMMARY: Table 4.9 Hypo R R Square F Change Model B t Sig. Result H 0.237 0.0563 1.194 (Constant) Inflation 5.62983 -0.11705 5.51050 -1.09281 0.000 0.287 Reject CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION, DISCUSSIONS, IMPLICATIONS, LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH 5.1 CONCLUSION: This research finds out the relationship between the Inflation and GDP growth of Pakistan with the help of model. In this research result shows that the there is no negatively relationship between the inflation and GDP growth in Pakistan. Result also shows that inflation is insignificantly affected on GDP growth of Pakistan. 5.2 DISCUSSIONS: The past researchers also showed that there was not relationship between inflation GDP and also showed that there was not negatively relationship between GDP and inflation rate. First researcher result was yearly data presented a positive and insignificant association between corruption and Inflation rate for 75 countries data and also increase in inflation rate can lead to increase in corruption and decline in growth rate and this result also showed that the negative and insignificant association between inflation rate and growth rate in yearly data for 75 countries data over.15 years (Branu and Tella, 2000). Second researcher result was significant relationship between industrial production growth rate and inflation rate was found only for five countries out of eighteen OECD countries, this result showed that another 13 OECD countries was found insignificant relationship between the inflation rate and growth rate of industrial production (Katsimbris, 1985). Third researcher result was the significant negative relation between inflation and growth only for high inflation rates; the relation was insignificant if the sample was limited to rates below 10% per year (Barro, 1995). In this research only 2009 CPI shows 20.78% but another 21 years data almost showed 10% per year. 5.3 IMPLICATIONS, LIMITATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: Result might not be accurate and significant in this research because these are the following limitation. In this research did not cover all sectors of GDP growth rate individually. In this research also did not cover GDP and the sectorsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ amounts individually in US Dollars or Pak Rupees. In this research did not cover individual test on SPI, CPI and WPI or average of these entire three inflation measuring rates. In this research only included 22 year observation. If these limitations cover this research, result might be more accurate and result might be significant. 5.4 FUTURE RESEARCH: These research results will significance for foreign investors and domestic investors. Foreign investors and domestic investors will observe the market condition of Pakistan with the help of this research. This research will conduct more properly in future research with the help of this research finding.

Development Of The Residential School System - 1740 Words

â€Å"I just don’t like to talk about it or even think about it. Sometimes when I am by myself, doing beadwork or something. I stop all the sudden and tears just start coming down† : A quote from Aggie George recalling of her experience in the Lejac Indian Residential School (Legacy of Hope Foundation, 2001). In the 1880s all the way to the 1990’s roughly 150,000 aboriginal children where removed from their communities and homes to attend the residential school system set up by the government and operated by the Christian churches (Government of Canada, 2015). The purpose of these residential schools was to isolate Aboriginal children from their families and assimilate them into the dominant culture (First Nations Study Program, 2009). As the history of the residential school system unfolds it becomes evident that the Canadian Government attempted to eradicate the Aboriginals culture and lifestyle. 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Health Tourism - 4063 Words

Health Tourism A Boon or Curse? What is it? Medical tourism (also called medical travel, health tourism or global health care) is a term initially coined by travel agencies and themass media to describe the rapidly-growing practice of traveling across international borders to obtain health care. Such services typically include elective procedures as well as complex specialized surgeriessuch as joint replacement (knee/hip), cardiac surgery, dental surgery, and cosmetic surgeries. However, virtually every type of health care, including psychiatry, alternative treatments, convalescent care and even burial services are available. As a practical matter, providers and customers commonly use informal channels of communication-connection-contract,†¦show more content†¦Additionally, patients are finding that insurance either does not cover orthopedic surgery (such as knee/hip replacement) or imposes unreasonable restrictions on the choice of the facility, surgeon, or prosthetics to be used. Medical tourism for knee/hip replace ments has emerged as one of the more widely accepted procedures because of the lower cost and minimal difficulties associated with the traveling to/from the surgery. Colombia provides a knee replacement for about $5,000 USD, including all associated fees, such as FDA-approved prosthetics and hospital stay-over expenses. However, many clinics quote prices that are not all inclusive and include only the surgeon fees associated with the procedure.[7] According to an article by the University of Delaware publication, Udaily: â€Å" The cost of surgery in India, Thailand or South Africa can be one-tenth of what it is in theUnited States or Western Europe, and sometimes even less. A heart-valve replacement that would cost $200,000 or more in the US, for example, goes for $10,000 in India--and that includes round-trip airfare and a brief vacation package. 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Evaluation Of The Da Vinci - 1741 Words

ï  ¶ Abstract With the utilization of robotics in complicated surgeries, surgeons are able to perform the required tasks with the use of precision offered by robots. The utilization of robotics minimizes surgery trauma, increases dexterity, offers a wider range of motion, and allows improved access to obstructed organs. The da Vinci Robot is a revised, upgraded and an enhanced machine from its predecessors and its original design made by Leonardo da Vinci. A company in California was able to evolve the design of the da Vinci robotic system. Four models were made by Intuitive Surgical, the standard original model, model S, model Si, and the most recent one, model Xi. The da Vinci Surgical System is now a worldwide system that is utilized for†¦show more content†¦The dVSS was FDA approved in the year 2000. â€Å"The da Vinci has 2,250+ patents and additional 1,550 pending. The system is available in 6 continents, 64 countries, and 50 statesâ€Å"(Intuitive Surgical 2017). 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Essay on The Importance of Exile in the Poetry of Seamus...

The Importance of Exile in the Poetry of Seamus Heaney To be a poet in a culture obsessed with politics is a risky business. Investing poetry with the heavy burden of public meaning only frustrates its flight: however tempting it is to employ ones poetic talent in the service of a program or an ideology, the result usually has little to do with poetry. This is not to condemn the so-called literature of engagement; eye-opening and revealing, it has served its purpose in the unfinished story of our century, and now is certainly no time to call for the poets retreat into the ivory tower of the self. Preserving the individual voice amidst the amorphous, all-leveling collective must be the first act of poetic will, a launching†¦show more content†¦It is this distancing, this voluntary flight from the political community of the moment, that I propose to examine here. The importance of exile goes well beyond Heaneys poetry and the Irish experience altogether, and the following discussion will place it in the global context of the late twentieth century, thus underscoring the significance of Heaney as a truly universal poet. In order to understand the role of exile in Heaneys poetry, we must not take that exile literally (for in that sense he is an exile only part of the year) but rather comprehend it as a form of categorical imperative mandating that the poet stay clear of all procession, as Heaneys alter ego is told by Simon Sweeney in Section I of Station Island. Heaney did indeed move out of Northern Ireland in the mid-1970s, and there were those vehement enough in their nationalism to see his move as an act of betrayal. That these critics failed to realize the most basic thing about Heaney, and poetry in general, should be obvious enough. In one of the essays included in his Government of the Tongue, Heaney wrote about Mandelstam in terms that could well define his own poetic creed: the essential thing about lyric poetry . . . was its unlooked-for joy in being itself, and the essential thing for the lyric poet was therefore aShow MoreRelatedYeats Essay2604 Words   |  11 Pagesliking the poetry of W.B Yeats. Support your points by reference to or quotation from, the poems that are on your course. In my opinion and from the sample of his poetry which I have studied, I would say that the poetry of W.B Yeats is very enjoyable to read. The themes of his poems are often easily identified with and his simple style of writing makes his poetry easy to interpret and understand. Although easily engaging with the themes of his poetry contributes to my liking of Yeats’ poetry, it is

Persuasive Speech Topics Free Essays

Persuasive Speech Topics Specific Purpose: To persuade my audience that there is a necessity for Americans to become bilingual. America has become a bilingual nation since a numerous population of Hispanics have been immigrating to the country. Since the population of Hispanics immigrants is large, Spanish has become American’s second language therefore many companies have Spanish speakers that are able to provide a better customer service. We will write a custom essay sample on Persuasive Speech Topics or any similar topic only for you Order Now I would like to speak about this topic because as a native Spanish speaker and I can relate to it. I can persuade people to learn a new language and show them the advantages it can bring to their lives. And also show them how important knowing a second language can be. Fedynsky, Peter. 09 June 2005†³America – A bilingual Nation? † VoaNews. com. Retrieved November 8, 2012, from http://web. archive. org/web/20061129185230/http://www. voanews. com/english/archive/2005-06/2005-06-09-voa40. cfm? CFID=6433348CFTOKEN=32352745 Specific Purpose: To persuade my audience that sex education should be taught at school. The lack of sexual education is affecting our community making young girls vulnerable to being pregnant. Julie Atkins, mother of three girls aged 12, 14, and 16 who became pregnant, blamed the school that the lack of sex education make her daughters ignorant of how to use protection. I want to speak about this topic because this is affecting our society greatly. The number of teenager’s pregnancy is increasing every day making the lives of many girls difficult. I believe that people, especially teenagers should be taught how to use protection in school so they won’t have to go through the hardship of having to raise a child at their young age. Ford, Liz. May 24, 2005. â€Å"Campaigners renew calls for better sex education. † Guardian Unlimited. Retrieved November 8, 2012, from http://web. archive. org/web/20061206003156/http://www. top101persuasivespeechtopics. com/sex_education. html Specific Purpose: To persuade my audience to vote for Obama. Obama has done wonderful things this past four years of his presidency for the American community. He has shown that he can be trustworthy to most Americans but especially to the LGBT Community. As part of the LGBT community I feel strongly connected to his topic. I truly believe that Obama has done more for the LGBT community than any other president in the US. I would love to speak about this topic because it involves me and I would like to persuade my audience to vote for him and show them the great president he is and all the things he has done for Americans but especially for the LGBT community. DNC Services Corporation. 2012. â€Å"LGBT Equality: Accomplishments of the Obama Administration†. Democrats. org. Retrieved November 8, 2012, from http://www. democrats. org/people/lgbt_community/lgbt_equality_accomplishments_of_the_obama_administration How to cite Persuasive Speech Topics, Essays

The Elements free essay sample

Case Analysis Cases in Strategic Mgt. September 29, 2011 Introduction A case study provides an account of the trends and actions that have occurred in a business or industry over a certain period of time. It records the events and decisions managers had to deal with. Changes in the market, new competition, fluctuating profits, changes in the board of a company are all examples of significant events that would be documented in a case study. After the events of a business are documented and analyzed a recommendation is given that would help the business’ organizational problems. Case Analysis Case studies are used for a number of reasons. They provide experience and examples of organizational issues that the reader may not have encountered. It gives the reader an understanding of how top level managers solve problems as they occur. These solutions can then be compared and contrasted based on their level of success or failure. We will write a custom essay sample on The Elements or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page This will give a person a decent basis to provide recommendations To analyze a case study one must first look at the history of a company, considering their development and growth overtime. It is important to chart the important incidents in the company’s history, tracing the most critical or unusual events that lead to the development of the company that it is today. After researching the company’s history it is time to view the current manifestation of the business. Using the SWOT analysis technique and the historical data that was charted a document of the strengths and weaknesses of the company should be developed. Using these strengths and weaknesses it is now necessary to analyze the current environment of the industry the company is in. Having done these steps there should now be a document of the strengths and weaknesses as well as opportunities and threats within the industry the company is in. Following the SWOT analysis it is necessary to view the corporate level strategy defining the company’s mission and goals. Some of the factors to consider are the nature of the company’s subsidiaries and acquisitions. Analyze the relationship between the businesses owned by the company. Now that the corporate level strategy is acknowledged the business level strategy must be found. If the company in question is one single business, the strategy would be the same as the corporate strategy. Though, if the company has various businesses under its control each one could have its own strategy. Having performed a SWOT analysis and viewing the corporate and business strategies employed, will provide a very good look into the operations of the business. With this information the final portion of a case analysis can be completed. This involves making a recommendation for future operations of the business. The recommendation should be directed at a strategic issue the company is having. The set of recommendations should be specific for each case analyzed. Once these recommendations are made piers can add their input to formulating a cohesive strategy. Conclusion Case Studies are an effective way to analyze business problems from various sectors of the market. They are also a useful tool in work shopping strategic planning and collaborative development. These studies teach analytical skills as well as research techniques, which is why they are very useful in a class setting and a great learning development tool.